Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings Limited (9909.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.82 - $13.72$11.09
Multi-Stage$20.41 - $22.49$21.43
Blended Fair Value$16.26
Current Price$2.01
Upside708.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.270.390.270.260.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---97.69%-30.21%41.83%5.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.28%11.19%6.80%2.32%1.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)594.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)417.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)118.9674.3544.61
Cash Retained (M)417.89417.89417.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-118.96-74.35-44.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)298.93343.54373.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)638.78638.78638.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.540.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.540.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.82$11.09$13.72
Upside / Downside338.87%451.56%582.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)594.80588.85582.96577.13571.36565.65582.61
Payout Ratio29.74%41.79%53.85%65.90%77.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.91246.10313.90380.31445.37509.08538.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)229.23231.57233.91
Year 2 PV (M)272.33277.92283.56
Year 3 PV (M)307.33316.84326.54
Year 4 PV (M)335.23349.13363.45
Year 5 PV (M)356.92375.51394.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,534.9412,135.5912,761.00
Equity Value (M)13,035.9913,686.5514,363.32
Shares Outstanding (M)638.78638.78638.78
Fair Value$20.41$21.43$22.49
Upside / Downside915.30%965.97%1,018.68%

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