Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sunshine Insurance Group Company Limited (6963.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.50 - $7.79$6.63
Multi-Stage$8.51 - $9.32$8.91
Blended Fair Value$7.77
Current Price$2.96
Upside162.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS20.38%0.00%0.170.180.150.130.030.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---5.23%18.56%12.89%286.96%-48.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.52%4.47%3.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,681.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,064.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,936.201,210.13726.08
Cash Retained (M)5,617.005,617.005,617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,936.20-1,210.13-726.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,680.804,406.884,890.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,502.0011,502.0011,502.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.50$6.63$7.79
Upside / Downside85.86%124.04%163.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,681.009,584.199,488.359,393.469,299.539,206.539,482.73
Payout Ratio41.98%51.58%61.19%70.79%80.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,064.004,943.845,805.686,649.797,476.438,285.888,771.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,449.234,494.634,540.03
Year 2 PV (M)4,702.134,798.584,896.01
Year 3 PV (M)4,846.964,996.865,149.81
Year 4 PV (M)4,904.305,107.565,317.08
Year 5 PV (M)4,891.505,146.215,411.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,034.3877,889.5281,903.62
Equity Value (M)97,828.51102,433.37107,217.98
Shares Outstanding (M)11,502.0011,502.0011,502.00
Fair Value$8.51$8.91$9.32
Upside / Downside187.34%200.87%214.92%

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