Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Feihe Limited (6186.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.50 - $8.14$6.76
Multi-Stage$10.65 - $11.68$11.16
Blended Fair Value$8.96
Current Price$5.21
Upside71.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.78%0.00%0.290.280.240.370.300.300.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.83%19.73%-37.14%26.36%-0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.60%7.45%4.02%4.39%1.94%3.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,264.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,086.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,177.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,252.87783.04469.82
Cash Retained (M)1,177.521,177.521,177.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,252.87-783.04-469.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-75.34394.48707.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,063.039,063.039,063.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.50$6.76$8.14
Upside / Downside5.53%29.76%56.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,264.336,201.686,139.676,078.276,017.495,957.316,136.03
Payout Ratio81.20%82.96%84.72%86.48%88.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,086.805,145.055,201.625,256.555,309.865,361.585,675.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,722.094,770.274,818.46
Year 2 PV (M)4,381.554,471.434,562.22
Year 3 PV (M)4,063.824,189.504,317.74
Year 4 PV (M)3,767.573,923.724,084.67
Year 5 PV (M)3,491.533,673.343,862.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,107.7280,070.8384,197.34
Equity Value (M)96,534.29101,099.09105,843.07
Shares Outstanding (M)9,063.039,063.039,063.03
Fair Value$10.65$11.16$11.68
Upside / Downside104.44%114.11%124.16%

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