Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway CO.,LTD. (600269.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.97 - $20.31$14.80
Multi-Stage$16.37 - $17.98$17.16
Blended Fair Value$15.98
Current Price$4.85
Upside229.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.59%-1.18%0.300.290.310.410.420.420.470.440.440.43
YoY Growth--0.71%-3.37%-25.45%-3.52%1.61%-11.51%7.27%-0.87%3.44%28.33%
Dividend Yield--5.78%6.47%9.00%11.34%11.85%12.03%10.17%9.14%8.16%8.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,755.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)539.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,215.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)351.11219.44131.67
Cash Retained (M)1,215.751,215.751,215.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-351.11-219.44-131.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)864.64996.311,084.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,354.062,354.062,354.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Fair Value$10.97$14.80$20.31
Upside / Downside126.19%205.24%318.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,755.541,796.001,837.391,879.741,923.061,967.382,026.40
Payout Ratio30.75%42.60%54.45%66.30%78.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)539.79765.061,000.441,246.251,502.861,770.641,874.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Year 1 PV (M)709.26716.26723.26
Year 2 PV (M)859.81876.87894.09
Year 3 PV (M)992.941,022.641,052.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,110.051,154.541,200.34
Year 5 PV (M)1,212.441,273.481,336.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,652.8535,346.9337,108.57
Equity Value (M)38,537.3540,390.7142,316.13
Shares Outstanding (M)2,354.062,354.062,354.06
Fair Value$16.37$17.16$17.98
Upside / Downside237.54%253.77%270.63%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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