Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Zhengdan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (300641.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.50 - $80.45$53.45
Multi-Stage$27.90 - $30.44$29.15
Blended Fair Value$41.30
Current Price$21.70
Upside90.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS63.60%31.28%0.430.060.050.030.020.040.090.080.020.13
YoY Growth--672.48%20.52%69.72%48.36%-50.00%-57.80%6.67%325.41%-85.49%366.99%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.24%0.84%0.45%0.27%0.81%1.37%0.93%0.21%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,039.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)367.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)672.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)207.98129.9977.99
Cash Retained (M)672.03672.03672.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-207.98-129.99-77.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)464.05542.05594.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)527.70527.70527.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.031.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.031.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.581.721.82
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.50$53.45$80.45
Upside / Downside72.79%146.31%270.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,039.901,107.491,179.481,256.141,337.791,424.751,467.49
Payout Ratio35.38%46.30%57.23%68.15%79.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)367.87512.77674.96856.061,057.861,282.281,357.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)462.05466.43470.81
Year 2 PV (M)548.03558.47569.01
Year 3 PV (M)626.32644.30662.62
Year 4 PV (M)697.40724.22751.81
Year 5 PV (M)761.73798.52836.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,626.3812,187.9412,770.99
Equity Value (M)14,721.9215,379.8916,061.96
Shares Outstanding (M)527.70527.70527.70
Fair Value$27.90$29.15$30.44
Upside / Downside28.56%34.31%40.27%

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