Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited (2877.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.92 - $498.98$282.99
Multi-Stage$107.99 - $118.54$113.17
Blended Fair Value$198.08
Current Price$7.15
Upside2,670.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.37%4.10%0.540.420.320.600.320.330.350.350.350.36
YoY Growth--28.57%31.25%-46.65%87.63%-3.05%-4.64%-1.31%0.00%-3.03%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.96%6.27%4.78%10.69%7.15%5.00%5.18%5.73%4.45%4.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,932.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)762.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,169.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)386.55241.60144.96
Cash Retained (M)1,169.811,169.811,169.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-386.55-241.60-144.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)783.25928.211,024.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)755.40755.40755.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.231.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.231.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.052.242.37
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Fair Value$115.92$282.99$498.98
Upside / Downside1,521.31%3,857.95%6,878.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,932.762,018.142,107.282,200.372,297.562,399.052,471.02
Payout Ratio39.47%49.58%59.68%69.79%79.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)762.951,000.591,257.731,535.631,835.642,159.152,285.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)941.63950.74959.84
Year 2 PV (M)1,113.881,135.531,157.38
Year 3 PV (M)1,279.871,317.361,355.57
Year 4 PV (M)1,439.761,496.271,554.41
Year 5 PV (M)1,593.721,672.281,753.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)75,207.1078,914.2082,766.07
Equity Value (M)81,575.9885,486.3889,547.19
Shares Outstanding (M)755.40755.40755.40
Fair Value$107.99$113.17$118.54
Upside / Downside1,410.36%1,482.76%1,557.94%

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