Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. (2555.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.94 - $11.83$9.79
Multi-Stage$15.71 - $17.24$16.46
Blended Fair Value$13.13
Current Price$8.68
Upside51.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.690.440.290.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---98.61%57.42%47.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.09%5.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,349.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,027.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)321.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)269.83168.64101.19
Cash Retained (M)321.17321.17321.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-269.83-168.64-101.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.34152.52219.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,385.711,385.711,385.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.110.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.110.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.94$9.79$11.83
Upside / Downside-8.51%12.82%36.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,349.151,335.651,322.301,309.081,295.981,283.021,321.52
Payout Ratio76.19%78.96%81.72%84.48%87.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,027.981,054.581,080.541,105.881,130.601,154.721,222.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)970.08979.98989.88
Year 2 PV (M)914.32933.07952.02
Year 3 PV (M)860.78887.40914.57
Year 4 PV (M)809.51843.06877.65
Year 5 PV (M)760.54800.14841.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,455.3118,364.2519,310.66
Equity Value (M)21,770.5422,807.9023,886.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,385.711,385.711,385.71
Fair Value$15.71$16.46$17.24
Upside / Downside81.00%89.62%98.59%

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