Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Limited (0236.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.18 - $1.67$1.42
Multi-Stage$1.80 - $1.97$1.88
Blended Fair Value$1.65
Current Price$0.96
Upside71.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%9.98%0.050.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--399.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-48.23%
Dividend Yield--5.95%1.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.398.375.02
Cash Retained (M)44.5144.5144.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.39-8.37-5.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.1336.1539.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.57373.57373.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.18$1.42$1.67
Upside / Downside22.42%47.62%73.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.9366.2665.6064.9464.2963.6565.56
Payout Ratio33.49%44.79%56.09%67.40%78.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.4229.6836.8043.7750.6057.2860.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)26.7226.9927.27
Year 2 PV (M)29.8230.4431.05
Year 3 PV (M)31.9432.9333.93
Year 4 PV (M)33.2434.6236.04
Year 5 PV (M)33.8835.6537.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)515.99542.85570.83
Equity Value (M)671.59703.48736.61
Shares Outstanding (M)373.57373.57373.57
Fair Value$1.80$1.88$1.97
Upside / Downside87.27%96.16%105.40%

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