Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (0016.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$142.16 - $232.87$182.62
Multi-Stage$444.01 - $489.50$466.31
Blended Fair Value$324.46
Current Price$90.05
Upside260.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.004.614.914.914.914.914.664.163.863.42
YoY Growth---100.00%-6.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.34%11.92%7.75%13.12%5.05%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.83%4.97%5.29%4.24%4.96%3.52%3.52%3.37%3.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37,895.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,589.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16,306.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,579.004,736.882,842.13
Cash Retained (M)16,306.0016,306.0016,306.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,579.00-4,736.88-2,842.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,727.0011,569.1313,463.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,922.782,922.782,922.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.993.964.61
LTM Dividend per Share7.397.397.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.993.964.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3711.3411.99
WACC / Discount Rate5.15%5.15%5.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$142.16$182.62$232.87
Upside / Downside57.87%102.80%158.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37,895.0037,516.0537,140.8936,769.4836,401.7936,037.7737,118.90
Payout Ratio56.97%63.58%70.18%76.79%83.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,589.0023,851.3826,066.3528,234.6330,356.9532,433.9934,334.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.15%5.15%5.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)22,454.0522,683.1722,912.29
Year 2 PV (M)23,101.6223,575.4924,054.17
Year 3 PV (M)23,557.3024,285.8325,029.22
Year 4 PV (M)23,844.1924,832.4225,851.06
Year 5 PV (M)23,983.1425,232.0026,532.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,180,813.671,242,301.371,306,324.26
Equity Value (M)1,297,753.971,362,910.291,430,703.35
Shares Outstanding (M)2,922.782,922.782,922.78
Fair Value$444.01$466.31$489.50
Upside / Downside393.07%417.83%443.59%

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