Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SISB Public Company Limited (SISB.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.52 - $43.60$28.22
Multi-Stage$14.44 - $15.75$15.08
Blended Fair Value$21.65
Current Price$14.50
Upside49.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%10.85%0.310.160.100.080.100.000.100.070.120.00
YoY Growth--93.75%60.00%31.58%-24.00%0.00%-100.00%28.57%-36.36%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.91%0.39%0.34%0.73%0.93%0.00%1.32%1.42%2.24%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)925.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)394.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)530.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.01115.6369.38
Cash Retained (M)530.26530.26530.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.01-115.63-69.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)345.25414.63460.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)945.25945.25945.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.440.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.440.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.52$28.22$43.60
Upside / Downside34.61%94.61%200.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)925.06985.191,049.231,117.431,190.061,267.411,305.44
Payout Ratio42.68%52.14%61.61%71.07%80.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)394.80513.70646.40794.17958.421,140.671,207.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)463.75468.14472.54
Year 2 PV (M)526.79536.83546.96
Year 3 PV (M)584.28601.06618.15
Year 4 PV (M)636.56661.04686.22
Year 5 PV (M)683.93716.96751.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,755.1211,274.5911,813.95
Equity Value (M)13,650.4314,258.6214,889.07
Shares Outstanding (M)945.25945.25945.25
Fair Value$14.44$15.08$15.75
Upside / Downside-0.41%4.03%8.63%

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