Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ratchaphruek Hospital Public Company Limited (RPH.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.74 - $64.20$22.78
Multi-Stage$7.06 - $7.70$7.37
Blended Fair Value$15.08
Current Price$4.98
Upside202.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.70%26.28%0.300.260.460.150.100.100.110.100.100.24
YoY Growth--15.44%-42.22%200.19%49.70%0.61%-10.35%12.27%-0.86%-57.97%715.55%
Dividend Yield--5.69%4.32%7.54%2.41%1.83%2.16%2.34%2.11%1.79%5.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.6821.6813.01
Cash Retained (M)25.0525.0525.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.68-21.68-13.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)-9.633.3812.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)537.18537.18537.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.74$22.78$64.20
Upside / Downside135.77%357.47%1,189.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.40184.67196.68209.46223.08237.58244.71
Payout Ratio85.55%86.44%87.33%88.22%89.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.35159.64171.76184.79198.79213.82226.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)146.67148.06149.45
Year 2 PV (M)144.99147.75150.54
Year 3 PV (M)143.31147.43151.62
Year 4 PV (M)141.64147.09152.69
Year 5 PV (M)139.98146.74153.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,074.073,222.553,376.71
Equity Value (M)3,790.653,959.614,134.76
Shares Outstanding (M)537.18537.18537.18
Fair Value$7.06$7.37$7.70
Upside / Downside41.70%48.01%54.56%

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