Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tencent Holdings Limited (NNND.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$656.57 - $2,545.66$1,111.96
Multi-Stage$410.03 - $448.34$428.84
Blended Fair Value$770.40
Current Price$463.16
Upside66.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.26%32.27%3.102.251.391.341.110.890.730.540.400.28
YoY Growth--37.54%62.01%3.59%20.93%24.34%22.71%34.13%36.58%40.11%49.91%
Dividend Yield--0.66%0.79%0.42%0.44%0.21%0.26%0.23%0.17%0.21%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208,003.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43,303.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)164,700.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41,600.6026,000.3815,600.23
Cash Retained (M)164,700.00164,700.00164,700.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-41,600.60-26,000.38-15,600.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)123,099.40138,699.63149,099.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,306.649,306.649,306.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.2314.9016.02
LTM Dividend per Share4.654.654.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.2314.9016.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.8819.5620.67
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$656.57$1,111.96$2,545.66
Upside / Downside41.76%140.08%449.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208,003.00221,523.20235,922.20251,257.15267,588.86284,982.14293,531.60
Payout Ratio20.82%34.65%48.49%62.33%76.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43,303.0076,768.33114,401.20156,602.00203,805.55256,483.92271,516.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70,171.9870,837.1271,502.26
Year 2 PV (M)95,585.9197,406.5699,244.38
Year 3 PV (M)119,603.05123,036.43126,534.89
Year 4 PV (M)142,279.60147,751.27153,379.26
Year 5 PV (M)163,669.75171,575.06179,782.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,224,675.513,380,428.543,542,142.61
Equity Value (M)3,815,985.813,991,034.984,172,586.32
Shares Outstanding (M)9,306.649,306.649,306.64
Fair Value$410.03$428.84$448.34
Upside / Downside-11.47%-7.41%-3.20%

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