Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (BCH-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.22 - $103.93$45.14
Multi-Stage$12.01 - $13.11$12.55
Blended Fair Value$28.85
Current Price$13.00
Upside121.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.96%11.03%0.370.511.410.330.230.220.230.180.140.12
YoY Growth---26.00%-64.29%324.98%43.23%4.55%-4.35%27.78%28.57%16.66%-7.69%
Dividend Yield--2.67%2.45%6.93%1.62%1.58%1.95%1.35%1.06%1.09%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,289.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,072.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)217.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)257.98161.2496.74
Cash Retained (M)217.60217.60217.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-257.98-161.24-96.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)-40.3856.37120.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,468.232,468.232,468.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.020.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.020.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.22$45.14$103.93
Upside / Downside63.21%247.25%699.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,289.901,373.751,463.041,558.141,659.421,767.281,820.30
Payout Ratio83.13%84.50%85.88%87.25%88.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,072.301,160.871,256.431,359.511,470.671,590.551,683.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,068.961,079.091,089.22
Year 2 PV (M)1,065.351,085.641,106.12
Year 3 PV (M)1,061.481,091.951,123.00
Year 4 PV (M)1,057.361,098.021,139.84
Year 5 PV (M)1,053.001,103.861,156.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,345.1525,521.0326,741.91
Equity Value (M)29,651.2930,979.5832,356.76
Shares Outstanding (M)2,468.232,468.232,468.23
Fair Value$12.01$12.55$13.11
Upside / Downside-7.59%-3.45%0.84%

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