Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tokyu REIT, Inc. (8957.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$228,605.85 - $383,993.53$296,733.00
Multi-Stage$435,109.39 - $477,443.25$455,870.72
Blended Fair Value$376,301.86
Current Price$196,900.00
Upside91.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.63%4.34%7,811.807,511.178,057.527,582.427,322.646,230.235,848.055,307.585,449.535,089.38
YoY Growth--4.00%-6.78%6.27%3.55%17.53%6.54%10.18%-2.60%7.08%-0.37%
Dividend Yield--3.97%4.95%4.28%3.89%3.59%4.71%2.96%3.48%4.06%3.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,747.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,954.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,793.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,749.522,343.451,406.07
Cash Retained (M)3,793.423,793.423,793.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,749.52-2,343.45-1,406.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.901,449.972,387.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.980.980.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share44.981,485.692,446.16
LTM Dividend per Share15,322.5415,322.5415,322.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share44.981,485.692,446.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend15,367.5316,808.2317,768.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-0.11%0.89%1.89%
Fair Value$228,605.85$296,733.00$383,993.53
Upside / Downside16.10%50.70%95.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,747.6018,913.7019,081.2719,250.3219,420.8719,592.9320,180.71
Payout Ratio79.77%81.81%83.86%85.91%87.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,954.1815,473.8016,001.4516,537.2417,081.2717,633.6318,667.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-0.11%0.89%1.89%
Year 1 PV (M)14,371.8014,515.6814,659.56
Year 2 PV (M)13,803.4514,081.2214,361.76
Year 3 PV (M)13,249.6913,651.6314,061.62
Year 4 PV (M)12,710.9213,227.6313,759.94
Year 5 PV (M)12,187.4512,809.8513,457.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)358,325.84376,625.34395,664.96
Equity Value (M)424,649.14444,911.36465,965.27
Shares Outstanding (M)0.980.980.98
Fair Value$435,109.39$455,870.72$477,443.25
Upside / Downside120.98%131.52%142.48%

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