Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd. (4204.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,775.79 - $5,382.49$3,813.02
Multi-Stage$2,573.18 - $2,809.91$2,689.39
Blended Fair Value$3,251.21
Current Price$2,755.00
Upside18.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.45%9.62%76.7166.8557.2151.7250.3351.1347.3343.5637.3233.20
YoY Growth--14.75%16.85%10.61%2.77%-1.57%8.02%8.67%16.71%12.43%8.45%
Dividend Yield--2.94%3.00%2.76%2.79%2.65%3.32%2.84%2.31%1.86%2.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70,721.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33,106.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)37,615.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,144.208,840.135,304.08
Cash Retained (M)37,615.0037,615.0037,615.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,144.20-8,840.13-5,304.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)23,470.8028,774.8832,310.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)416.31416.31416.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share56.3869.1277.61
LTM Dividend per Share79.5279.5279.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share56.3869.1277.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend135.90148.64157.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Fair Value$2,775.79$3,813.02$5,382.49
Upside / Downside0.75%38.40%95.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70,721.0074,355.9878,177.7882,196.0386,420.8190,862.7493,588.62
Payout Ratio46.81%55.45%64.09%72.72%81.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33,106.0041,230.1650,102.0159,776.9470,314.0681,776.4686,569.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Year 1 PV (M)37,384.2737,743.2538,102.23
Year 2 PV (M)41,191.0541,985.9242,788.39
Year 3 PV (M)44,561.0345,857.0947,178.03
Year 4 PV (M)47,526.7049,378.6651,284.22
Year 5 PV (M)50,118.4552,571.4155,119.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)850,459.67892,083.99935,322.37
Equity Value (M)1,071,241.171,119,620.311,169,794.73
Shares Outstanding (M)416.31416.31416.31
Fair Value$2,573.18$2,689.39$2,809.91
Upside / Downside-6.60%-2.38%1.99%

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