Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China State Construction International Holdings Limited (3311.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$646.01 - $761.11$713.28
Multi-Stage$488.52 - $536.15$511.89
Blended Fair Value$612.58
Current Price$10.80
Upside5,572.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.99%13.22%0.610.510.440.390.330.280.350.290.280.24
YoY Growth--19.42%15.73%14.10%17.91%17.86%-20.00%19.32%5.54%15.95%35.19%
Dividend Yield--4.98%5.56%5.04%4.00%7.43%3.94%5.60%2.56%2.39%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,420.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,692.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,727.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,884.082,427.551,456.53
Cash Retained (M)13,727.8913,727.8913,727.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,884.08-2,427.55-1,456.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,843.8111,300.3412,271.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,074.445,074.445,074.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.942.232.42
LTM Dividend per Share1.121.121.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.942.232.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.063.353.54
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$646.01$713.28$761.11
Upside / Downside5,881.62%6,504.41%6,947.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,420.4020,682.7222,027.1023,458.8624,983.6926,607.6327,405.86
Payout Ratio29.31%41.45%53.59%65.72%77.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,692.518,572.9111,803.7115,418.2919,452.9023,946.8725,350.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,481.468,561.858,642.24
Year 2 PV (M)11,553.2211,773.2811,995.41
Year 3 PV (M)14,930.1215,358.7115,795.42
Year 4 PV (M)18,636.0519,352.7420,089.90
Year 5 PV (M)22,696.5823,792.8324,931.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,402,685.242,518,735.842,639,227.96
Equity Value (M)2,478,982.672,597,575.252,720,681.99
Shares Outstanding (M)5,074.445,074.445,074.44
Fair Value$488.52$511.89$536.15
Upside / Downside4,423.36%4,639.76%4,864.39%

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