Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$213.84 - $1,165.87$415.83
Multi-Stage$120.02 - $131.36$125.58
Blended Fair Value$270.71
Current Price$138.70
Upside95.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-11.60%20.25%0.640.560.510.470.391.180.330.240.220.21
YoY Growth--13.05%11.06%6.99%20.66%-66.69%252.33%41.51%9.86%3.57%106.38%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.36%0.45%0.53%0.34%2.39%1.03%0.83%1.07%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)458.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)405.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.6757.2934.37
Cash Retained (M)405.42405.42405.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.67-57.29-34.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)313.76348.13371.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.1878.1878.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.014.454.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.014.454.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.695.135.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$213.84$415.83$1,165.87
Upside / Downside54.18%199.80%740.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)458.33488.12519.85553.64589.62627.95646.79
Payout Ratio11.54%27.23%42.93%58.62%74.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.91132.94223.15324.53438.14565.15598.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)122.14123.30124.46
Year 2 PV (M)188.39191.98195.60
Year 3 PV (M)251.73258.96266.32
Year 4 PV (M)312.27324.28336.63
Year 5 PV (M)370.09387.97406.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,138.838,531.938,940.09
Equity Value (M)9,383.459,818.4110,269.62
Shares Outstanding (M)78.1878.1878.18
Fair Value$120.02$125.58$131.36
Upside / Downside-13.47%-9.46%-5.30%

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