Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Western Digital Corporation (WDC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.32 - $26.20$23.45
Multi-Stage$31.56 - $34.97$33.22
Blended Fair Value$28.34
Current Price$131.31
Upside-78.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-40.60%-19.73%0.120.000.000.000.001.641.611.631.581.28
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%1.88%-1.52%3.31%23.71%17.17%
Dividend Yield--0.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%6.03%4.28%3.69%2.42%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,557.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,474.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)511.40319.63191.78
Cash Retained (M)2,474.002,474.002,474.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-511.40-319.63-191.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,962.602,154.382,282.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)363.25363.25363.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.405.936.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.405.936.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.636.166.51
WACC / Discount Rate11.53%11.53%11.53%
Growth Rate-12.67%-11.67%-10.67%
Fair Value$20.32$23.45$26.20
Upside / Downside-84.53%-82.14%-80.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,557.002,258.601,995.021,762.201,556.551,374.901,416.14
Payout Ratio3.25%20.60%37.95%55.30%72.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.00465.20757.06974.471,130.821,237.411,309.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.53%11.53%11.53%
Growth Rate-12.67%-11.67%-10.67%
Year 1 PV (M)412.37417.09421.81
Year 2 PV (M)594.88608.58622.44
Year 3 PV (M)678.75702.34726.46
Year 4 PV (M)698.21730.74764.40
Year 5 PV (M)677.25716.93758.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,401.028,893.169,408.09
Equity Value (M)11,462.4812,068.8312,701.64
Shares Outstanding (M)363.25363.25363.25
Fair Value$31.56$33.22$34.97
Upside / Downside-75.97%-74.70%-73.37%

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