Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Logwin AG (TGHN.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$322.63 - $457.52$389.15
Multi-Stage$344.69 - $374.08$359.13
Blended Fair Value$374.14
Current Price$238.00
Upside57.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.90%0.00%14.0024.006.003.503.513.512.502.000.000.00
YoY Growth---41.67%300.01%71.33%-0.11%-0.01%39.99%25.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.83%9.30%2.22%1.28%2.35%2.21%2.07%1.47%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)133.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.7116.7010.02
Cash Retained (M)56.4056.4056.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.71-16.70-10.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.6939.7046.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.882.882.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.3113.7916.11
LTM Dividend per Share26.8026.8026.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.3113.7916.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend37.1140.5942.91
WACC / Discount Rate14.84%14.84%14.84%
Growth Rate3.00%4.00%5.00%
Fair Value$322.63$389.15$457.52
Upside / Downside35.56%63.51%92.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)133.56138.90144.45150.22156.23162.47167.35
Payout Ratio57.77%64.22%70.66%77.11%83.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.1689.20102.07115.84130.54146.23154.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate14.84%14.84%14.84%
Growth Rate3.00%4.00%5.00%
Year 1 PV (M)76.9277.6778.42
Year 2 PV (M)75.9177.3978.89
Year 3 PV (M)74.2976.4878.70
Year 4 PV (M)72.2075.0477.97
Year 5 PV (M)69.7473.2076.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)623.37654.23686.29
Equity Value (M)992.441,034.001,077.05
Shares Outstanding (M)2.882.882.88
Fair Value$344.69$359.13$374.08
Upside / Downside44.83%50.89%57.18%

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