Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Rand Mining Limited (RND.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.88 - $2.58$2.23
Multi-Stage$2.63 - $2.87$2.75
Blended Fair Value$2.49
Current Price$1.81
Upside37.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.11%0.00%0.100.100.100.100.110.111.430.060.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-5.44%0.00%-92.59%2,300.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.53%6.62%8.26%7.58%7.29%5.13%42.62%2.20%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.962.471.48
Cash Retained (M)8.428.428.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.96-2.47-1.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.465.956.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.8756.8756.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate12.50%12.50%12.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.88$2.23$2.58
Upside / Downside3.99%23.42%42.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.7919.6019.4019.2119.0118.8219.39
Payout Ratio57.47%63.97%70.48%76.99%83.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.3812.5413.6714.7915.8816.9417.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.50%12.50%12.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.0311.1411.26
Year 2 PV (M)10.5910.8011.02
Year 3 PV (M)10.0710.3910.70
Year 4 PV (M)9.529.9110.32
Year 5 PV (M)8.949.409.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)99.63104.81110.22
Equity Value (M)149.78156.46163.41
Shares Outstanding (M)56.8756.8756.87
Fair Value$2.63$2.75$2.87
Upside / Downside45.50%51.99%58.74%

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