Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PTT Public Company Limited (PTT-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.77 - $42.57$33.96
Multi-Stage$46.19 - $50.62$48.36
Blended Fair Value$41.16
Current Price$33.25
Upside23.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.22%1.82%2.892.193.022.751.812.862.992.591.571.54
YoY Growth--31.85%-27.41%9.50%52.00%-36.54%-4.33%15.17%65.58%1.78%-36.20%
Dividend Yield--9.02%6.49%9.58%7.16%4.42%9.29%6.22%4.70%4.05%5.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73,943.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58,113.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,829.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,788.659,242.915,545.74
Cash Retained (M)15,829.5115,829.5115,829.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,788.65-9,242.91-5,545.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,040.866,586.6010,283.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28,482.4728,482.4728,482.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.230.36
LTM Dividend per Share2.042.042.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.230.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.082.272.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Fair Value$26.77$33.96$42.57
Upside / Downside-19.49%2.13%28.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73,943.2574,548.2675,158.2375,773.1976,393.1877,018.2579,328.79
Payout Ratio78.59%80.87%83.16%85.44%87.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58,113.7460,290.0762,498.1464,738.3067,010.9369,316.4273,379.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Year 1 PV (M)55,495.5056,051.4756,607.43
Year 2 PV (M)52,953.0554,019.3555,096.29
Year 3 PV (M)50,489.0452,021.7253,585.11
Year 4 PV (M)48,105.3650,062.2452,078.22
Year 5 PV (M)45,803.2148,143.9750,579.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,062,863.621,117,181.051,173,696.84
Equity Value (M)1,315,709.771,377,479.801,441,643.37
Shares Outstanding (M)28,482.4728,482.4728,482.47
Fair Value$46.19$48.36$50.62
Upside / Downside38.93%45.45%52.23%

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