Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PEG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.24 - $80.54$62.46
Multi-Stage$122.75 - $135.13$128.82
Blended Fair Value$95.64
Current Price$83.46
Upside14.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.71%4.81%2.392.272.162.061.981.901.821.741.661.58
YoY Growth--5.19%5.38%4.66%4.04%4.32%4.40%4.60%4.82%5.20%5.48%
Dividend Yield--2.90%3.41%3.45%2.94%3.29%4.23%3.11%3.46%3.74%3.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,082.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,242.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)840.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)416.40260.25156.15
Cash Retained (M)840.00840.00840.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-416.40-260.25-156.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)423.60579.75683.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)500.25500.25500.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.851.161.37
LTM Dividend per Share2.482.482.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.851.161.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.333.643.85
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate-1.22%-0.22%0.78%
Fair Value$48.24$62.46$80.54
Upside / Downside-42.20%-25.16%-3.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,082.002,077.322,072.662,068.002,063.352,058.722,120.48
Payout Ratio59.65%65.72%71.79%77.86%83.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,242.001,365.291,488.011,610.181,731.791,852.841,961.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate-1.22%-0.22%0.78%
Year 1 PV (M)1,280.021,292.981,305.94
Year 2 PV (M)1,307.951,334.571,361.46
Year 3 PV (M)1,326.951,367.661,409.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,338.041,393.051,449.74
Year 5 PV (M)1,342.161,411.491,483.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,810.5757,641.8360,588.89
Equity Value (M)61,405.6964,441.5867,598.88
Shares Outstanding (M)500.25500.25500.25
Fair Value$122.75$128.82$135.13
Upside / Downside47.08%54.35%61.91%

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