Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90,146.23 - $106,252.24$99,553.16
Multi-Stage$56,013.17 - $61,583.98$58,745.46
Blended Fair Value$79,149.31
Current Price$3,480.00
Upside2,174.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.17%-2.31%58.5676.480.020.0015.2145.5260.6378.0940.4167.68
YoY Growth---23.44%374,970.27%0.00%-100.00%-66.60%-24.92%-22.36%93.26%-40.29%-8.55%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.35%0.00%0.00%0.38%1.79%1.03%1.71%0.87%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,963,713.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,863,914.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,099,799.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)792,742.60495,464.13297,278.48
Cash Retained (M)2,099,799.002,099,799.002,099,799.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-792,742.60-495,464.13-297,278.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,307,056.401,604,334.881,802,520.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,257.877,257.877,257.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share180.09221.05248.35
LTM Dividend per Share256.81256.81256.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share180.09221.05248.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend436.90477.86505.17
WACC / Discount Rate2.41%2.41%2.41%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Fair Value$90,146.23$99,553.16$106,252.24
Upside / Downside2,490.41%2,760.72%2,953.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,963,713.004,128,822.794,300,810.284,479,961.984,666,576.294,860,964.095,006,793.01
Payout Ratio47.02%55.62%64.21%72.81%81.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,863,914.002,296,432.872,761,750.983,261,850.353,798,821.244,374,867.684,631,283.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.41%2.41%2.41%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Year 1 PV (M)2,220,839.902,242,366.862,263,893.81
Year 2 PV (M)2,582,923.302,633,239.362,684,040.79
Year 3 PV (M)2,950,220.823,036,845.983,125,150.42
Year 4 PV (M)3,322,789.623,453,508.293,588,046.39
Year 5 PV (M)3,700,687.453,883,555.164,073,581.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)391,758,885.16411,117,464.01431,233,865.98
Equity Value (M)406,536,346.26426,366,979.65446,968,578.93
Shares Outstanding (M)7,257.877,257.877,257.87
Fair Value$56,013.17$58,745.46$61,583.98
Upside / Downside1,509.57%1,588.09%1,669.65%

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