Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hennessy Advisors, Inc. (HNNA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.01 - $18.72$15.10
Multi-Stage$27.87 - $30.72$29.26
Blended Fair Value$22.18
Current Price$10.45
Upside112.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.520.510.500.500.450.360.280.19
YoY Growth---100.00%-99.80%1.56%1.69%0.13%12.09%22.75%30.45%47.33%8.46%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.01%7.73%6.08%4.71%5.89%4.44%3.64%1.69%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.991.250.75
Cash Retained (M)7.867.867.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.99-1.25-0.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.876.617.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.917.917.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.840.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.840.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.01$15.10$18.72
Upside / Downside14.90%44.52%79.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.969.869.769.669.579.479.76
Payout Ratio21.11%34.89%48.67%62.45%76.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.103.444.756.037.298.529.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.213.243.27
Year 2 PV (M)4.134.214.30
Year 3 PV (M)4.885.035.19
Year 4 PV (M)5.505.735.96
Year 5 PV (M)5.996.306.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)196.62206.86217.52
Equity Value (M)220.33231.38242.87
Shares Outstanding (M)7.917.917.91
Fair Value$27.87$29.26$30.72
Upside / Downside166.67%180.04%193.95%

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