Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.13 - $4.37$3.75
Multi-Stage$5.08 - $5.60$5.33
Blended Fair Value$4.54
Current Price$8.90
Upside-49.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.74%0.00%0.050.000.000.000.000.210.230.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-10.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%6.22%5.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)220.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)215.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.0027.5016.50
Cash Retained (M)215.00215.00215.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.00-27.50-16.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)171.00187.50198.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)421.18421.18421.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.450.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.450.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate-3.51%-2.51%-1.51%
Fair Value$3.13$3.75$4.37
Upside / Downside-64.87%-57.92%-50.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)220.00214.49209.11203.87198.76193.78199.60
Payout Ratio2.27%19.82%37.36%54.91%72.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.0042.5178.13111.94144.01174.40184.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate-3.51%-2.51%-1.51%
Year 1 PV (M)38.4638.8639.26
Year 2 PV (M)63.9665.2966.64
Year 3 PV (M)82.9185.5288.18
Year 4 PV (M)96.51100.57104.76
Year 5 PV (M)105.74111.34117.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,751.501,844.151,940.69
Equity Value (M)2,139.082,245.732,356.69
Shares Outstanding (M)421.18421.18421.18
Fair Value$5.08$5.33$5.60
Upside / Downside-42.93%-40.09%-37.13%

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