Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.73 - $168.14$141.13
Multi-Stage$219.56 - $242.15$230.63
Blended Fair Value$185.88
Current Price$238.43
Upside-22.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-53.63%0.00%0.040.040.050.050.501.951.921.340.000.00
YoY Growth---6.67%-6.25%-5.88%-89.88%-74.27%1.40%43.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.03%0.03%0.04%0.34%3.30%1.73%0.71%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)531.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)530.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.2466.4039.84
Cash Retained (M)530.00530.00530.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.24-66.40-39.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)423.76463.60490.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.4833.4833.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.6613.8514.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.6613.8514.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.6913.8814.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate-2.92%-1.92%-0.92%
Fair Value$115.73$141.13$168.14
Upside / Downside-51.46%-40.81%-29.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)531.20521.00510.99501.18491.55482.11496.58
Payout Ratio0.23%18.18%36.14%54.09%72.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.2094.72184.65271.09354.14433.90459.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate-2.92%-1.92%-0.92%
Year 1 PV (M)87.0387.9388.82
Year 2 PV (M)155.88159.11162.37
Year 3 PV (M)210.26216.83223.53
Year 4 PV (M)252.37262.93273.82
Year 5 PV (M)284.10299.04314.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,360.066,694.447,042.75
Equity Value (M)7,349.717,720.288,105.89
Shares Outstanding (M)33.4833.4833.48
Fair Value$219.56$230.63$242.15
Upside / Downside-7.92%-3.27%1.56%

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