Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Goneo Group Co., Ltd. (603195.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.91 - $23.98$20.40
Multi-Stage$27.76 - $30.35$29.03
Blended Fair Value$24.71
Current Price$44.66
Upside-44.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.791.300.950.801.470.000.121.340.410.30
YoY Growth--38.12%36.08%19.66%-45.81%0.00%-100.00%-91.18%225.59%36.64%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.48%2.55%1.81%1.86%2.47%0.00%0.42%4.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,987.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,104.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)883.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)797.53498.45299.07
Cash Retained (M)883.52883.52883.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-797.53-498.45-299.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.00385.07584.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,551.851,551.851,551.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.252.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$16.91$20.40$23.98
Upside / Downside-62.13%-54.32%-46.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,987.633,947.753,908.273,869.193,830.503,792.193,905.96
Payout Ratio77.84%80.27%82.71%85.14%87.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,104.103,169.043,232.373,294.123,354.313,412.973,613.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,854.132,883.252,912.37
Year 2 PV (M)2,621.882,675.662,729.98
Year 3 PV (M)2,406.442,480.862,556.80
Year 4 PV (M)2,206.912,298.382,392.66
Year 5 PV (M)2,022.362,127.672,237.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,972.8932,585.7234,265.05
Equity Value (M)43,084.6145,051.5447,094.19
Shares Outstanding (M)1,551.851,551.851,551.85
Fair Value$27.76$29.03$30.35
Upside / Downside-37.83%-35.00%-32.05%

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