Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Olympic Steel, Inc. (ZEUS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.89 - $115.11$54.33
Multi-Stage$21.60 - $23.58$22.58
Blended Fair Value$38.45
Current Price$30.45
Upside26.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.02%22.50%0.570.470.340.080.080.070.070.070.070.07
YoY Growth--20.01%38.94%352.14%0.11%0.68%-0.11%0.23%0.11%-0.23%0.11%
Dividend Yield--1.81%0.67%0.65%0.20%0.26%0.72%0.44%0.36%0.40%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.761.721.03
Cash Retained (M)6.876.876.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.76-1.72-1.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.125.155.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7411.7411.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.440.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.440.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.89$54.33$115.11
Upside / Downside8.00%78.43%278.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.7914.6915.6416.6617.7418.8919.46
Payout Ratio50.16%58.12%66.09%74.06%82.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.928.5410.3412.3414.5517.0018.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7.797.877.94
Year 2 PV (M)8.618.788.94
Year 3 PV (M)9.389.659.93
Year 4 PV (M)10.1110.4910.89
Year 5 PV (M)10.7811.3011.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)206.92216.91227.29
Equity Value (M)253.59265.00276.84
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7411.7411.74
Fair Value$21.60$22.58$23.58
Upside / Downside-29.05%-25.86%-22.55%

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