DDM Analysis: XVALO.MC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.31 - $15.29	$12.69
Multi-Stage	$19.73 - $21.65	$20.67
Blended Fair Value	$16.68
Current Price	$11.02
Upside	51.37%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.92	1.34	1.51	3.07	0.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-31.60%	-11.27%	-50.82%	291.44%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.03%	10.65%	9.16%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,502.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,464.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,038.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,100.40	687.75	412.65
Cash Retained (M)	2,038.00	2,038.00	2,038.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,100.40	-687.75	-412.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)	937.60	1,350.25	1,625.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,272.84	4,272.84	4,272.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.32	0.38
LTM Dividend per Share	0.81	0.81	0.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.32	0.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.03	1.13	1.19
WACC / Discount Rate	7.79%	7.79%	7.79%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$10.31	$12.69	$15.29
Upside / Downside	-6.43%	15.15%	38.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,502.00	5,446.98	5,392.51	5,338.59	5,285.20	5,232.35	5,389.32
Payout Ratio	62.96%	68.37%	73.78%	79.18%	84.59%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,464.00	3,723.94	3,978.34	4,227.28	4,470.84	4,709.11	4,985.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.79%	7.79%	7.79%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,419.92	3,454.81	3,489.71
Year 2 PV (M)	3,355.27	3,424.09	3,493.61
Year 3 PV (M)	3,274.15	3,375.40	3,478.72
Year 4 PV (M)	3,180.09	3,311.89	3,447.74
Year 5 PV (M)	3,076.10	3,236.28	3,403.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	67,983.01	71,523.05	75,209.04
Equity Value (M)	84,288.53	88,325.52	92,521.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,272.84	4,272.84	4,272.84
Fair Value	$19.73	$20.67	$21.65
Upside / Downside	79.01%	87.58%	96.49%

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Vale S.A. (XVALO.MC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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