Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

XRF Scientific Limited (XRF.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.83 - $6.47$4.13
Multi-Stage$2.08 - $2.27$2.17
Blended Fair Value$3.15
Current Price$1.84
Upside71.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS27.54%7.88%0.030.030.020.020.010.010.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--25.42%34.41%26.05%28.56%23.51%233.33%25.00%-20.00%-66.35%-43.57%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.92%1.65%2.68%2.50%4.01%1.61%1.49%1.65%5.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.852.411.45
Cash Retained (M)11.1511.1511.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.85-2.41-1.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.308.749.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.97138.97138.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.83$4.13$6.47
Upside / Downside53.96%124.29%251.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.2720.5221.8623.2824.7926.4027.19
Payout Ratio42.12%51.70%61.27%70.85%80.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.1210.6113.3916.4919.9423.7625.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9.599.689.77
Year 2 PV (M)10.9311.1411.35
Year 3 PV (M)12.1712.5212.87
Year 4 PV (M)13.2913.8014.33
Year 5 PV (M)14.3115.0015.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)228.48239.52250.98
Equity Value (M)288.77301.65315.01
Shares Outstanding (M)138.97138.97138.97
Fair Value$2.08$2.17$2.27
Upside / Downside12.93%17.97%23.20%

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