Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Winner Group Enterprise Public Company Limited (WINNER.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.29 - $3.81$2.96
Multi-Stage$3.60 - $3.94$3.77
Blended Fair Value$3.37
Current Price$1.99
Upside69.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.93%2.14%0.140.140.180.080.140.150.150.160.150.11
YoY Growth--0.00%-22.22%137.06%-43.06%-9.09%0.00%-4.35%4.55%29.41%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.17%6.51%8.14%2.91%6.93%11.70%8.03%6.14%5.25%6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.3014.568.74
Cash Retained (M)26.5026.5026.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.30-14.56-8.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.2011.9417.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)592.01592.01592.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate0.70%1.70%2.70%
Fair Value$2.29$2.96$3.81
Upside / Downside15.25%48.83%91.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.50118.48120.49122.54124.63126.74130.55
Payout Ratio77.25%79.80%82.35%84.90%87.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.0094.5599.23104.04108.99114.07120.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate0.70%1.70%2.70%
Year 1 PV (M)86.9987.8688.72
Year 2 PV (M)84.0185.6887.38
Year 3 PV (M)81.0583.4885.97
Year 4 PV (M)78.1281.2784.51
Year 5 PV (M)75.2379.0483.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,726.671,814.121,905.08
Equity Value (M)2,132.072,231.462,334.67
Shares Outstanding (M)592.01592.01592.01
Fair Value$3.60$3.77$3.94
Upside / Downside80.98%89.41%98.17%

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