DDM Analysis: WALMEX.MX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$37.55 - $64.32	$49.13
Multi-Stage	$39.27 - $42.79	$41.00
Blended Fair Value	$45.07
Current Price	$56.57
Upside	-20.33%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.79%	5.62%	2.15	2.67	1.70	1.62	1.78	2.07	1.47	2.46	1.67	1.82
YoY Growth	-	-	-19.31%	56.81%	4.86%	-8.87%	-13.97%	40.56%	-40.17%	47.57%	-8.21%	45.83%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.82%	4.04%	2.36%	1.98%	2.76%	3.71%	2.81%	5.30%	3.86%	4.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	50,490.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	37,399.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	13,091.05

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10,098.10	6,311.31	3,786.79
Cash Retained (M)	13,091.05	13,091.05	13,091.05
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10,098.10	-6,311.31	-3,786.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,992.95	6,779.74	9,304.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	17,381.49	17,381.49	17,381.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.39	0.54
LTM Dividend per Share	2.15	2.15	2.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.39	0.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.32	2.54	2.69
WACC / Discount Rate	10.03%	10.03%	10.03%
Growth Rate	3.62%	4.62%	5.62%
Fair Value	$37.55	$49.13	$64.32
Upside / Downside	-33.62%	-13.15%	13.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	50,490.50	52,824.29	55,265.95	57,820.47	60,493.07	63,289.20	65,187.87
Payout Ratio	74.07%	77.26%	80.44%	83.63%	86.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	37,399.45	40,810.89	44,457.78	48,354.62	52,516.72	56,960.28	60,298.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.03%	10.03%	10.03%
Growth Rate	3.62%	4.62%	5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)	36,734.66	37,089.16	37,443.67
Year 2 PV (M)	36,020.34	36,718.92	37,424.20
Year 3 PV (M)	35,264.52	36,295.36	37,346.09
Year 4 PV (M)	34,474.47	35,824.63	37,214.07
Year 5 PV (M)	33,656.74	35,312.40	37,032.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)	506,493.39	531,409.09	557,295.81
Equity Value (M)	682,644.12	712,649.56	743,756.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	17,381.49	17,381.49	17,381.49
Fair Value	$39.27	$41.00	$42.79
Upside / Downside	-30.57%	-27.52%	-24.36%

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Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. (WALMEX.MX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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