Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Volkswagen AG (VOW.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.67 - $121.51$104.64
Multi-Stage$93.16 - $100.88$96.95
Blended Fair Value$100.80
Current Price$91.96
Upside9.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.79%11.41%11.5323.408.705.975.895.784.742.660.735.02
YoY Growth---50.74%168.96%45.69%1.42%1.83%22.06%78.30%265.93%-85.53%28.24%
Dividend Yield--12.32%19.07%6.93%3.80%2.47%5.41%3.28%1.65%0.53%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,121.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,412.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,709.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,424.20890.13534.08
Cash Retained (M)2,709.002,709.002,709.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,424.20-890.13-534.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,284.801,818.882,174.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)501.30501.30501.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.563.634.34
LTM Dividend per Share8.808.808.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.563.634.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.3612.4313.14
WACC / Discount Rate16.51%16.51%16.51%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Fair Value$87.67$104.64$121.51
Upside / Downside-4.67%13.79%32.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,121.007,416.147,723.518,043.628,376.998,724.198,985.91
Payout Ratio61.96%67.57%73.17%78.78%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,412.005,010.795,651.646,337.017,069.477,851.778,311.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate16.51%16.51%16.51%
Growth Rate3.14%4.14%5.14%
Year 1 PV (M)4,259.274,300.564,341.86
Year 2 PV (M)4,083.494,163.054,243.38
Year 3 PV (M)3,891.974,006.274,122.79
Year 4 PV (M)3,690.633,835.853,985.31
Year 5 PV (M)3,484.253,656.463,835.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,291.9328,640.8230,042.53
Equity Value (M)46,701.5348,603.0250,571.28
Shares Outstanding (M)501.30501.30501.30
Fair Value$93.16$96.95$100.88
Upside / Downside1.31%5.43%9.70%

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