Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (UVE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.77 - $178.03$117.16
Multi-Stage$62.01 - $67.79$64.85
Blended Fair Value$91.01
Current Price$26.30
Upside246.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.09%1.49%0.770.810.820.840.850.900.880.830.840.77
YoY Growth---4.14%-2.08%-1.72%-1.45%-5.97%2.34%6.28%-0.79%8.55%15.84%
Dividend Yield--3.26%4.05%4.52%6.21%5.93%5.05%2.76%2.61%3.42%4.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)122.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.4815.309.18
Cash Retained (M)104.88104.88104.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.48-15.30-9.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.4089.5895.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.8728.8728.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.783.103.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.783.103.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.393.713.92
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate5.10%6.10%7.10%
Fair Value$81.77$117.16$178.03
Upside / Downside210.90%345.49%576.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)122.38129.85137.77146.18155.10164.56169.50
Payout Ratio14.30%29.44%44.58%59.72%74.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.5038.2361.4287.30116.11148.10156.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate5.10%6.10%7.10%
Year 1 PV (M)34.6034.9235.25
Year 2 PV (M)50.3051.2652.23
Year 3 PV (M)64.7066.5668.46
Year 4 PV (M)77.8780.8883.97
Year 5 PV (M)89.8994.2598.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,472.921,544.331,618.49
Equity Value (M)1,790.271,872.211,957.18
Shares Outstanding (M)28.8728.8728.87
Fair Value$62.01$64.85$67.79
Upside / Downside135.78%146.57%157.76%

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