Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Unum Group 6.250% JR NT58 (UNMA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.00 - $105.00$80.75
Multi-Stage$111.24 - $122.28$116.65
Blended Fair Value$98.70
Current Price$24.07
Upside310.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.28%6.40%1.661.551.421.341.301.281.201.101.020.97
YoY Growth--7.00%9.01%6.18%3.23%1.18%6.31%10.00%7.34%4.82%9.28%
Dividend Yield--6.58%6.15%5.65%5.03%4.86%5.61%4.61%4.38%4.08%3.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)913.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)306.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)607.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)182.62114.1468.48
Cash Retained (M)607.00607.00607.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-182.62-114.14-68.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)424.38492.86538.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.96178.96178.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.372.753.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.711.711.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.372.753.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.084.464.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate0.05%1.05%2.05%
Fair Value$62.00$80.75$105.00
Upside / Downside157.57%235.46%336.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)913.10922.65932.30942.05951.91961.87990.72
Payout Ratio33.52%44.82%56.11%67.41%78.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)306.10413.52523.15635.03749.20865.68916.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate0.05%1.05%2.05%
Year 1 PV (M)383.96387.80391.63
Year 2 PV (M)451.03460.09469.24
Year 3 PV (M)508.35523.74539.45
Year 4 PV (M)556.87579.47602.75
Year 5 PV (M)597.45627.91659.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,408.5418,296.1419,219.57
Equity Value (M)19,906.1920,875.1421,882.25
Shares Outstanding (M)178.96178.96178.96
Fair Value$111.24$116.65$122.28
Upside / Downside362.13%384.63%408.01%

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