Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Universal Store Holdings Limited (UNI.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.28 - $9.73$7.88
Multi-Stage$14.80 - $16.27$15.52
Blended Fair Value$11.70
Current Price$7.78
Upside50.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.410.240.240.210.490.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--67.35%2.01%17.09%-58.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.27%4.95%8.05%5.06%6.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.326.453.87
Cash Retained (M)9.809.809.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.32-6.45-3.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.523.355.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.7676.7676.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.28$7.88$9.73
Upside / Downside-19.27%1.26%25.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.6151.1050.5850.0849.5849.0850.55
Payout Ratio81.02%82.81%84.61%86.41%88.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.8142.3142.8043.2743.7344.1746.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)39.3739.7740.17
Year 2 PV (M)37.0537.8138.58
Year 3 PV (M)34.8535.9337.03
Year 4 PV (M)32.7734.1335.53
Year 5 PV (M)30.8032.4034.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)961.081,011.131,063.24
Equity Value (M)1,135.931,191.171,248.62
Shares Outstanding (M)76.7676.7676.76
Fair Value$14.80$15.52$16.27
Upside / Downside90.20%99.45%109.07%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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