Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Umpqua Holdings Corporation (UMPQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.08 - $25.51$20.38
Multi-Stage$21.95 - $24.02$22.96
Blended Fair Value$21.67
Current Price$17.85
Upside21.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS4.62%14.71%0.840.850.850.850.800.670.650.620.460.23
YoY Growth---0.80%-0.67%-0.07%6.43%19.61%3.07%4.80%35.66%95.46%9.89%
Dividend Yield--4.70%4.48%4.85%7.81%4.69%3.12%3.66%3.90%2.66%1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)182.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)154.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.3542.0925.26
Cash Retained (M)154.48154.48154.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.35-42.09-25.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.13112.39129.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)217.41217.41217.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.520.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.520.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.361.43
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate1.10%2.10%3.10%
Fair Value$16.08$20.38$25.51
Upside / Downside-9.90%14.18%42.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.75343.81351.02358.37365.89373.56384.76
Payout Ratio54.13%61.30%68.48%75.65%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)182.27210.76240.36271.11303.05336.20355.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate1.10%2.10%3.10%
Year 1 PV (M)191.67193.56195.46
Year 2 PV (M)198.78202.73206.73
Year 3 PV (M)203.90210.01216.24
Year 4 PV (M)207.27215.59224.16
Year 5 PV (M)209.11219.66230.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,761.213,950.944,148.26
Equity Value (M)4,771.934,992.505,221.48
Shares Outstanding (M)217.41217.41217.41
Fair Value$21.95$22.96$24.02
Upside / Downside22.97%28.65%34.55%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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