DDM Analysis: ULTJ.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2,196.83 - $4,663.78	$3,119.76
Multi-Stage	$1,650.52 - $1,800.15	$1,723.99
Blended Fair Value	$2,421.88
Current Price	$1,290.00
Upside	87.74%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.56%	24.21%	41.53	32.85	23.70	92.30	6.78	14.42	15.30	4.77	0.79	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	26.42%	38.66%	-74.33%	1,260.64%	-52.95%	-5.77%	221.02%	506.91%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.81%	1.76%	1.68%	6.17%	0.45%	0.90%	1.24%	0.30%	0.07%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,216,325.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	483,516.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	732,809.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	243,265.00	152,040.63	91,224.38
Cash Retained (M)	732,809.00	732,809.00	732,809.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-243,265.00	-152,040.63	-91,224.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	489,544.00	580,768.38	641,584.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,398.18	10,398.18	10,398.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	47.08	55.85	61.70
LTM Dividend per Share	46.50	46.50	46.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	47.08	55.85	61.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend	93.58	102.35	108.20
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$2,196.83	$3,119.76	$4,663.78
Upside / Downside	70.30%	141.84%	261.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,216,325.00	1,295,386.13	1,379,586.22	1,469,259.33	1,564,761.18	1,666,470.66	1,716,464.78
Payout Ratio	39.75%	49.80%	59.85%	69.90%	79.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	483,516.00	645,125.13	825,700.60	1,027,025.23	1,251,033.47	1,499,823.59	1,587,729.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	581,002.01	586,509.14	592,016.27
Year 2 PV (M)	669,714.88	682,471.07	695,347.59
Year 3 PV (M)	750,208.76	771,744.56	793,688.60
Year 4 PV (M)	823,007.17	854,657.71	887,212.47
Year 5 PV (M)	888,604.58	931,524.52	976,087.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	13,449,820.65	14,099,452.02	14,773,946.31
Equity Value (M)	17,162,358.06	17,926,359.00	18,718,298.34
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,398.18	10,398.18	10,398.18
Fair Value	$1,650.52	$1,723.99	$1,800.15
Upside / Downside	27.95%	33.64%	39.55%

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Financial Statements

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PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk (ULTJ.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener