Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Ultimate Games S.A. (ULG.WA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electronic Gaming & MultimediaSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.19 - $7.35$6.26
Multi-Stage$8.30 - $9.08$8.68
Blended Fair Value$7.47
Current Price$11.00
Upside-32.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.39%0.00%0.500.501.512.020.400.350.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-66.67%-25.00%400.00%14.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.51%4.33%10.60%8.88%1.39%2.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.820.520.31
Cash Retained (M)1.511.511.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.82-0.52-0.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.680.991.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.195.195.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.190.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.190.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.19$6.26$7.35
Upside / Downside-52.80%-43.11%-33.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.124.084.044.003.963.924.04
Payout Ratio63.41%68.73%74.05%79.36%84.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.622.812.993.183.353.533.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.532.552.58
Year 2 PV (M)2.422.472.52
Year 3 PV (M)2.312.392.46
Year 4 PV (M)2.202.292.39
Year 5 PV (M)2.082.192.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)31.5033.1434.85
Equity Value (M)43.0545.0447.10
Shares Outstanding (M)5.195.195.19
Fair Value$8.30$8.68$9.08
Upside / Downside-24.59%-21.11%-17.49%

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