Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.82 - $252.87$161.38
Multi-Stage$79.67 - $86.99$83.26
Blended Fair Value$122.32
Current Price$93.49
Upside30.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.90%20.80%1.371.161.000.680.520.420.370.330.300.28
YoY Growth--18.38%15.93%46.39%31.11%24.93%11.22%12.57%10.90%7.11%35.25%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.94%1.26%0.85%0.71%1.17%1.25%1.02%0.91%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)320.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)237.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.0140.0124.00
Cash Retained (M)237.49237.49237.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.01-40.01-24.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)173.48197.49213.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.9558.9558.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.943.353.62
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.943.353.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.344.755.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$110.82$161.38$252.87
Upside / Downside18.53%72.62%170.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)320.04340.84363.00386.59411.72438.49451.64
Payout Ratio25.79%38.64%51.48%64.32%77.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.55131.69186.86248.65317.68394.64417.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)118.99120.11121.24
Year 2 PV (M)152.55155.46158.39
Year 3 PV (M)183.42188.69194.05
Year 4 PV (M)211.74219.89228.26
Year 5 PV (M)237.67249.15261.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,792.093,975.254,165.42
Equity Value (M)4,696.464,908.545,128.43
Shares Outstanding (M)58.9558.9558.95
Fair Value$79.67$83.26$86.99
Upside / Downside-14.79%-10.94%-6.95%

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