Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sembcorp Industries Ltd (U96.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.87 - $8.11$7.00
Multi-Stage$14.08 - $15.56$14.80
Blended Fair Value$10.90
Current Price$6.85
Upside59.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.63%-4.43%0.140.130.070.060.030.040.040.090.120.17
YoY Growth--8.23%84.80%16.82%98.15%-23.94%0.00%-57.49%-23.16%-29.95%-21.09%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.39%2.05%2.96%1.75%3.42%3.09%5.96%8.41%11.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,959.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)569.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,390.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)391.80244.88146.93
Cash Retained (M)1,390.001,390.001,390.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-391.80-244.88-146.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)998.201,145.131,243.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,807.151,807.151,807.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.00
WACC / Discount Rate7.39%7.39%7.39%
Growth Rate-6.43%-5.43%-4.43%
Fair Value$5.87$7.00$8.11
Upside / Downside-14.27%2.16%18.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,959.001,852.711,752.191,657.121,567.211,482.181,526.64
Payout Ratio29.05%41.24%53.43%65.62%77.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)569.00763.99936.151,087.371,219.431,333.961,412.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.39%7.39%7.39%
Growth Rate-6.43%-5.43%-4.43%
Year 1 PV (M)703.87711.40718.92
Year 2 PV (M)794.62811.69828.95
Year 3 PV (M)850.35877.91906.05
Year 4 PV (M)878.59916.75956.14
Year 5 PV (M)885.48933.81984.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,337.5722,502.3423,717.43
Equity Value (M)25,450.4826,753.9028,111.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,807.151,807.151,807.15
Fair Value$14.08$14.80$15.56
Upside / Downside105.59%116.12%127.09%

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