Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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UOL Group Limited (U14.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.65 - $39.01$28.09
Multi-Stage$26.07 - $28.59$27.30
Blended Fair Value$27.70
Current Price$6.18
Upside348.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.75%11.45%0.200.180.150.150.170.170.170.090.080.07
YoY Growth--11.12%20.05%0.03%-14.22%0.06%0.08%104.90%11.93%4.49%7.67%
Dividend Yield--3.88%2.92%2.23%2.11%2.27%2.10%2.82%0.95%1.27%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,136.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)321.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)815.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)227.28142.0585.23
Cash Retained (M)815.32815.32815.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-227.28-142.05-85.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)588.04673.27730.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)845.00845.00845.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.24
WACC / Discount Rate7.45%7.45%7.45%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Fair Value$20.65$28.09$39.01
Upside / Downside234.15%354.48%531.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,136.391,171.901,208.531,246.291,285.241,325.401,365.16
Payout Ratio28.25%40.60%52.95%65.30%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)321.08475.83639.94813.85998.001,192.861,262.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.45%7.45%7.45%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)438.56442.86447.15
Year 2 PV (M)543.63554.32565.13
Year 3 PV (M)637.21656.11675.39
Year 4 PV (M)720.19748.82778.29
Year 5 PV (M)793.39833.01874.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,892.9719,836.2520,816.85
Equity Value (M)22,025.9523,071.3724,156.98
Shares Outstanding (M)845.00845.00845.00
Fair Value$26.07$27.30$28.59
Upside / Downside321.78%341.80%362.59%

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