Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$265.86 - $377.26$353.51
Multi-Stage$105.67 - $115.86$110.67
Blended Fair Value$232.09
Current Price$56.55
Upside310.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS8.59%0.00%1.521.371.301.221.071.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--10.76%5.73%6.08%14.69%6.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.84%3.67%2.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)177.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.4922.1813.31
Cash Retained (M)23.5123.5123.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.49-22.18-13.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.981.3310.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.4392.4392.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.130.010.11
LTM Dividend per Share1.671.671.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.130.010.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.681.78
WACC / Discount Rate4.83%4.83%4.83%
Growth Rate4.22%5.22%6.22%
Fair Value$265.86$353.51$377.26
Upside / Downside370.13%525.12%567.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)177.45186.72196.48206.74217.54228.91235.77
Payout Ratio86.75%87.40%88.05%88.70%89.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153.94163.20173.00183.38194.37206.02218.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.83%4.83%4.83%
Growth Rate4.22%5.22%6.22%
Year 1 PV (M)154.20155.68157.16
Year 2 PV (M)154.46157.43160.44
Year 3 PV (M)154.70159.20163.78
Year 4 PV (M)154.94160.97167.18
Year 5 PV (M)155.17162.76170.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,993.899,433.729,890.59
Equity Value (M)9,767.3610,229.7610,709.79
Shares Outstanding (M)92.4392.4392.43
Fair Value$105.67$110.67$115.86
Upside / Downside86.86%95.70%104.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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