Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.04 - $32.18$26.94
Multi-Stage$37.30 - $41.03$39.13
Blended Fair Value$33.03
Current Price$110.98
Upside-70.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-11.38%0.00%0.400.350.310.300.270.730.820.710.600.00
YoY Growth--12.28%15.00%2.22%11.16%-62.75%-11.07%15.36%16.92%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.34%0.39%0.34%0.37%1.73%2.28%1.97%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)630.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)531.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.0078.7547.25
Cash Retained (M)531.92531.92531.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.00-78.75-47.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)405.92453.17484.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)214.94214.94214.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.892.112.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.892.112.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.342.562.71
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$22.04$26.94$32.18
Upside / Downside-80.14%-75.73%-71.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)630.01623.71617.47611.30605.19599.13617.11
Payout Ratio15.57%30.46%45.34%60.23%75.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98.09189.96279.97368.17454.58539.22570.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)173.43175.20176.96
Year 2 PV (M)233.36238.15242.99
Year 3 PV (M)280.17288.83297.68
Year 4 PV (M)315.82328.91342.40
Year 5 PV (M)342.02359.83378.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,672.557,020.007,381.78
Equity Value (M)8,017.348,410.928,820.18
Shares Outstanding (M)214.94214.94214.94
Fair Value$37.30$39.13$41.03
Upside / Downside-66.39%-64.74%-63.03%

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