Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

TTW Public Company Limited (TTW-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.80 - $12.36$9.88
Multi-Stage$27.66 - $30.50$29.05
Blended Fair Value$19.46
Current Price$8.65
Upside125.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-0.80%0.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.600.65
YoY Growth---0.01%0.00%0.01%0.00%-0.03%0.00%0.01%0.00%-7.70%0.02%
Dividend Yield--6.90%6.63%6.86%5.40%5.08%4.72%4.96%4.96%5.66%6.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,130.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,393.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)736.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)626.06391.29234.77
Cash Retained (M)736.85736.85736.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-626.06-391.29-234.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)110.79345.56502.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,990.003,990.003,990.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate5.03%5.03%5.03%
Growth Rate-2.80%-1.80%-0.80%
Fair Value$7.80$9.88$12.36
Upside / Downside-9.88%14.17%42.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,130.293,074.013,018.742,964.462,911.162,858.822,944.59
Payout Ratio76.46%79.17%81.88%84.58%87.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,393.442,433.652,471.642,507.472,541.222,572.942,723.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.03%5.03%5.03%
Growth Rate-2.80%-1.80%-0.80%
Year 1 PV (M)2,293.542,317.142,340.73
Year 2 PV (M)2,195.242,240.642,286.51
Year 3 PV (M)2,098.862,164.302,231.10
Year 4 PV (M)2,004.652,088.422,174.80
Year 5 PV (M)1,912.822,013.262,117.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)99,840.84105,083.35110,543.79
Equity Value (M)110,345.96115,907.12121,694.81
Shares Outstanding (M)3,990.003,990.003,990.00
Fair Value$27.66$29.05$30.50
Upside / Downside219.72%235.83%252.60%

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