Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$348.87 - $411.03$385.19
Multi-Stage$90.02 - $98.62$94.24
Blended Fair Value$239.72
Current Price$56.52
Upside324.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.77%18.84%0.880.840.770.450.330.300.280.250.230.19
YoY Growth--5.09%9.77%71.38%36.84%7.35%10.61%9.91%9.45%18.59%22.65%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.61%1.63%0.96%0.91%1.83%1.41%1.99%1.66%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,105.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)483.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)621.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)221.02138.1482.88
Cash Retained (M)621.53621.53621.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-221.02-138.14-82.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)400.51483.40538.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)534.69534.69534.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.750.901.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.900.900.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.750.901.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.651.811.91
WACC / Discount Rate5.40%5.40%5.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$348.87$385.19$411.03
Upside / Downside517.25%581.52%627.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,105.091,176.921,253.421,334.891,421.661,514.061,559.49
Payout Ratio43.76%53.01%62.25%71.50%80.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)483.55623.83780.31954.481,148.011,362.661,442.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.40%5.40%5.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)586.34591.90597.45
Year 2 PV (M)689.33702.46715.71
Year 3 PV (M)792.52815.27838.45
Year 4 PV (M)895.91930.37965.81
Year 5 PV (M)999.511,047.791,097.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,168.2546,301.5948,516.59
Equity Value (M)48,131.8650,389.3752,731.92
Shares Outstanding (M)534.69534.69534.69
Fair Value$90.02$94.24$98.62
Upside / Downside59.27%66.74%74.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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