Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$165.64 - $729.27$393.49
Multi-Stage$84.47 - $92.42$88.37
Blended Fair Value$240.93
Current Price$33.28
Upside623.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.68%16.92%1.020.961.040.911.080.890.820.560.460.32
YoY Growth--5.69%-7.46%14.31%-15.80%21.26%9.05%46.58%21.70%41.23%52.27%
Dividend Yield--3.05%3.15%3.30%2.66%3.90%3.67%2.75%2.50%1.72%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.833.652.19
Cash Retained (M)21.2221.2221.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.83-3.65-2.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.3917.5719.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.957.957.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.932.212.39
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.932.212.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.933.213.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.37%7.37%7.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$165.64$393.49$729.27
Upside / Downside397.73%1,082.37%2,091.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.1631.0633.0835.2337.5239.9541.15
Payout Ratio27.24%39.79%52.34%64.90%77.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.9412.3617.3122.8629.0635.9638.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.37%7.37%7.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.4011.5111.62
Year 2 PV (M)14.7415.0215.30
Year 3 PV (M)17.9518.4718.99
Year 4 PV (M)21.0521.8622.70
Year 5 PV (M)24.0425.2026.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)582.57610.71639.93
Equity Value (M)671.76702.78734.95
Shares Outstanding (M)7.957.957.95
Fair Value$84.47$88.37$92.42
Upside / Downside153.82%165.54%177.69%

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