Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes Due 2029 (TRINI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.00 - $36.38$29.11
Multi-Stage$60.14 - $66.16$63.09
Blended Fair Value$46.10
Current Price$25.15
Upside83.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.200.930.380.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%28.86%145.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%4.79%3.72%1.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)151.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.3919.0011.40
Cash Retained (M)25.1125.1125.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.39-19.00-11.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.286.1113.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.8465.8465.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.090.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.931.931.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.090.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.13
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$23.00$29.11$36.38
Upside / Downside-8.56%15.75%44.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)151.97150.45148.94147.46145.98144.52148.86
Payout Ratio83.48%84.78%86.09%87.39%88.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.86127.55128.22128.86129.48130.07137.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)119.27120.48121.70
Year 2 PV (M)112.10114.40116.72
Year 3 PV (M)105.34108.60111.92
Year 4 PV (M)98.97103.07107.30
Year 5 PV (M)92.9697.80102.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,430.923,609.583,795.60
Equity Value (M)3,959.564,153.934,356.09
Shares Outstanding (M)65.8465.8465.84
Fair Value$60.14$63.09$66.16
Upside / Downside139.12%150.85%163.06%

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