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Definitive Analysis

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TQM Alpha Public Company Limited (TQM-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.84 - $259.09$104.42
Multi-Stage$29.52 - $32.21$30.84
Blended Fair Value$67.63
Current Price$14.70
Upside360.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.81%0.00%1.081.151.341.371.050.480.530.380.680.09
YoY Growth---6.19%-14.25%-2.08%30.34%121.05%-10.17%41.00%-45.00%686.73%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.19%4.30%4.06%3.42%1.71%1.41%3.28%3.26%5.93%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)781.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)646.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)134.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)156.3597.7258.63
Cash Retained (M)134.96134.96134.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-156.35-97.72-58.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-21.4037.2376.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)599.95599.95599.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.060.13
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.060.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.48%6.48%7.48%
Fair Value$50.84$104.42$259.09
Upside / Downside245.87%610.33%1,662.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)781.77832.40886.32943.721,004.841,069.931,102.02
Payout Ratio82.74%84.19%85.64%87.09%88.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)646.81700.80759.06821.93889.76962.931,019.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.48%6.48%7.48%
Year 1 PV (M)644.95651.06657.18
Year 2 PV (M)642.89655.14667.50
Year 3 PV (M)640.66659.06677.80
Year 4 PV (M)638.26662.81688.06
Year 5 PV (M)635.69666.41698.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,504.9415,205.6915,933.26
Equity Value (M)17,707.3918,500.1619,322.09
Shares Outstanding (M)599.95599.95599.95
Fair Value$29.52$30.84$32.21
Upside / Downside100.78%109.77%119.09%

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