DDM Analysis: TOTO.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$319.38 - $480.25	$395.45
Multi-Stage	$387.45 - $423.54	$405.16
Blended Fair Value	$400.31
Current Price	$224.00
Upside	78.71%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.89%	3.39%	20.04	18.19	16.22	9.54	2.86	10.46	17.10	7.61	11.40	11.17
YoY Growth	-	-	10.21%	12.12%	70.05%	233.76%	-72.68%	-38.82%	124.82%	-33.26%	2.07%	-22.26%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.37%	8.34%	6.14%	4.22%	1.35%	5.23%	4.30%	2.03%	2.46%	1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	376,436.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	135,925.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	240,510.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	75,287.29	47,054.56	28,232.73
Cash Retained (M)	240,510.59	240,510.59	240,510.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-75,287.29	-47,054.56	-28,232.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)	165,223.30	193,456.03	212,277.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,320.00	10,320.00	10,320.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	16.01	18.75	20.57
LTM Dividend per Share	13.17	13.17	13.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	16.01	18.75	20.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend	29.18	31.92	33.74
WACC / Discount Rate	10.65%	10.65%	10.65%
Growth Rate	1.39%	2.39%	3.39%
Fair Value	$319.38	$395.45	$480.25
Upside / Downside	42.58%	76.54%	114.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	376,436.45	385,425.96	394,630.16	404,054.15	413,703.19	423,582.66	436,290.14
Payout Ratio	36.11%	46.89%	57.67%	68.44%	79.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	135,925.86	180,714.15	227,564.06	276,548.53	327,742.77	381,224.40	403,568.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.65%	10.65%	10.65%
Growth Rate	1.39%	2.39%	3.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	161,722.75	163,317.84	164,912.93
Year 2 PV (M)	182,247.52	185,860.30	189,508.53
Year 3 PV (M)	198,202.11	204,124.80	210,164.32
Year 4 PV (M)	210,207.89	218,624.59	227,291.56
Year 5 PV (M)	218,814.22	229,820.12	241,264.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,027,246.25	3,179,510.45	3,337,840.78
Equity Value (M)	3,998,440.74	4,181,258.10	4,370,982.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,320.00	10,320.00	10,320.00
Fair Value	$387.45	$405.16	$423.54
Upside / Downside	72.97%	80.88%	89.08%

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PT Surya Toto Indonesia Tbk (TOTO.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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